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Stage Set for Most November Elections

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  This week, more than 2 million people across North Carolina made their voices heard through their ballots in the 2016 Primary election.

Both Presidential primary races were closer than expected. Trump beat Cruz by a little more than 3 points, a narrower margin than all major polls predicted. Cruz picked up 27 delegates from the Old North State. Trump received 29.

On the Democratic Side, Clinton had a solid showing, beating Sanders by more than 10 points, but Sanders managed to carry 45 North Carolina Delegates to Clinton’s 59.

Both primaries for Governor went about as well as expected for winners, Pat McCrory and Roy Cooper. But, as Chris Thomas reports, it could set the stage for a razor thin finish.

There were some races Tuesday that went down to the wire.

Those for North Carolina’s Governor were not among them. Republican Incumbent Pat McCrory and Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper won by a large margin against their respective, primary opponents, an outcome predicted for months by most pollsters.

Thomas Eamon, political science professor at East Carolina University in Greenville says it’s been a long time coming.

“They’ve both been skeptical of one another, knowing that they may very well face one another…long before this primary, we knew there was the probability of that, and so in many respects, I think they’ve had a polite, working relationship, but you can’t blame each one for being weary of the other.”  

Mr. McCrory overwhelmed his three challengers, securing more than 81 percent of the vote and winning all 100 counties in the state.

All this came despite sagging approval numbers and in-fighting between Mr. McCrory and fellow Republicans in the state government, a potentially precarious situation for the first term governor from Charlotte.

“In the case of McCrory, he, certainly, as the incumbent governor, during a controversial period in history is someone who has to worry about that.”  

Attorney General Roy Cooper also breezed through the gubernatorial primary, beating Ken Spaulding of Durham by a more than 2 to 1 margin.

November’s race pits these two members of the state executive branch against each other in a race that could be among North Carolina’s closest.

Still, even if Mr. Cooper wins, Eamon doesn’t see much room for major, party swings in the General Assembly due to current political boundaries.

“Now it is possible that if the Democrats did extremely well, there would be some Democratic gains in both houses of the legislature, but I would say that the Democrats actually taking control of either house of the legislature would be impossible in the upcoming election.”

Another incumbent seeking to protect his seat is Richard Burr, Senior Senator from North Carolina. Like McCrory, he swept all 100 counties Tuesday night. Burr’s opponent is Deborah K. Ross – once a state representative and a former ACLU attorney.

The Senate race is shaping to be as much a battle over votes as it is political and social ideology. Burr is firmly to the right on the political spectrum but still receives flak from conservative hard-liners farther from the center, which may have consequences in November.   

“If Burr should lose in North Carolina…that would be a bad omen for the Republican Party, because there are other Republican Senators who are more vulnerable than Burr and I could even imagine a situation where the Democrats might gain control of the Senate but that Burr in North Carolina would still manage to hang on, so if he loses…that would be a bad sign because if Burr loses in North Carolina, likely, a number of other vulnerable Republicans would lose.”

North Carolina voters had important executive and legislative questions to answer in March, but some parts of the state also had non-partisan judicial matters on the ballot. Places like Prosecutorial District 3A in Pitt County.

It’s a race between attorneys Daniel Entzminger and Wendy Hazelton to replace long-time and highly esteemed Superior Court Judge David A. Leech.

In a 2015 survey by the North Carolina Bar Association, Leech had the highest marks for Integrity and Impartiality among all state District Court Judges, a legacy Entzminger hopes to continue. 

“One of the things I’ve learned, particularly, from Judge Leech, in watching him over the last 13 years is that he strives to allow both parties to be heard. He makes it a point to allow both sides to present their cases, to present their evidence, to put on the witnesses they may have in the case.”

Hazelton did not return calls seeking comment.

There’s a similar situation in District 8A, in Lenoir and Greene Counties. The two remaining candidates – Imelda Pate and Stuart L. Stroud – are vying for Paul. L. Jones’ seat on the bench, a place he’s occupied since 1999.

Other results from the March primary this week include:

-Voters in Ayden saying “cheers” to a referendum allowing mixed drinks to be served in restaurants and bars in the town. The item passed by a 14-percentage point spread.

-In Craven County, Carroll Ipock may get his seventh term as District 3 Representative on the county School Board. After receiving the most votes in the March primary, he will face Ashley M. Smith in November. Craven County Schools is facing a budget shortfall of $3.5 million.

-And from the state perspective, more than 2.3 million North Carolinians came out to vote Tuesday, about 35.3 percent of the state’s electorate. That’s more people than in the past two Presidential primaries and a higher rate than 2012.

None of these results are official until the March 22 canvass.

The Daily Reflector of Greenville, the Kinston Free Press, the New Bern Sun Journal, and the Washington Daily News assisted with our coverage of the 2016 Primary Election.